New Year questions about the economic outlook

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January 1, 2019 – Five questions about the international economic outlook, from Chosun Ilbo (the leading Korean newspaper), and my replies:
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Six right predictions in 2018

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December 30, 2018 –– I realize that compiling a list of one’s own past forecasts is self-indulgent.  But perhaps there are readers who will indulge me too, as I run through six predictions that – it seems to me – were mostly proven right this past year.

  1. Volatility, as measured by the VIX, had been too low and would rise.
  2. The stock market was too high and would fall.
  3. Trump would switch from attacking the Fed for low interest rates, as he had during 2010-2016, to attacking it for raising interest rates.
  4. Prices of oil, minerals, and other commodities would fall.
  5. The December 2017 tax cuts would raise the US budget deficit and national debt (contrary to partisan predictions that they would pay for themselves);
  6. and in turn would raise the trade and current account deficits (contrary to Trump’s trade promises). In other words, the twin deficits would return.  They have.

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3 Book Recommendations: Openness & Progress

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December 25, 2018 — I was asked for 2 or 3 end-of-year book recommendations.  My choices are Pinker, Irwin & Clausing.
(The choices of others can be found at Project Syndicate or winnowed down.) Continue reading

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