January 1, 2019 – Five questions about the international economic outlook, from Chosun Ilbo (the leading Korean newspaper), and my replies:
December 30, 2018 –– I realize that compiling a list of one’s own past forecasts is self-indulgent. But perhaps there are readers who will indulge me too, as I run through six predictions that – it seems to me – were mostly proven right this past year.
- Volatility, as measured by the VIX, had been too low and would rise.
- The stock market was too high and would fall.
- Trump would switch from attacking the Fed for low interest rates, as he had during 2010-2016, to attacking it for raising interest rates.
- Prices of oil, minerals, and other commodities would fall.
- The December 2017 tax cuts would raise the US budget deficit and national debt (contrary to partisan predictions that they would pay for themselves);
- and in turn would raise the trade and current account deficits (contrary to Trump’s trade promises). In other words, the twin deficits would return. They have.
December 25, 2018 — I was asked for 2 or 3 end-of-year book recommendations. My choices are Pinker, Irwin & Clausing.
(The choices of others can be found at Project Syndicate or winnowed down.) Continue reading