The euro’s first 20 years

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January 28, 2019 —   In Europe, twenty years ago this month, 11 long-standing national currencies disappeared and were replaced by the new single currency, the euro.  Since then, the euro has had its successes and failures.

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New Year questions about the economic outlook

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January 1, 2019 – Five questions about the international economic outlook, from Chosun Ilbo (the leading Korean newspaper), and my replies:

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Six right predictions in 2018

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December 30, 2018 –– I realize that compiling a list of one’s own past forecasts is self-indulgent.  But perhaps there are readers who will indulge me too, as I run through six predictions that – it seems to me – were mostly proven right this past year.

  • Volatility, as measured by the VIX, had been too low and would rise.
  • The stock market was too high and would fall.
  • Trump would switch from attacking the Fed for low interest rates, as he had during 2010-2016, to attacking it for raising interest rates.
  • Prices of oil, minerals, and other commodities would fall.
  • The December 2017 tax cuts would raise the US budget deficit and national debt (contrary to partisan predictions that they would pay for themselves);
  • and in turn would raise the trade and current account deficits (contrary to Trump’s trade promises). In other words, the twin deficits would return.  They have.
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