December 2, 2022 — The most important task in confronting global climate change is the need to enforce serious quantitative limits on Greenhouse Gas emissions, such as the Nationally Defined Contributions which were originally negotiated in the 2015 Paris Agreement. The 27th Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC, which concluded in Sharm-el-Sheikh November 20, did not tackle this task. Carbon border equalization measures, including tariffs against carbon-intensive imports from lax countries, might supply the teeth that have been missing from such agreements. But they also risk advancing protectionism, which would ultimately slow the needed global energy transition. Adjudicating the fairness of carbon tariffs would be a good job for a reinvigorated WTO.
1) How do you see the state of the global economy in 2023? What about its reflections on Turkey?
JF: Contrary to most of what one hears, it is not certain that the world will go into recession in 2023, nor that the US will. But the risk of a recession is certainly greater than usual, or at least a global slowdown, due mostly to the increases in interest rates that most central banks are finding necessary in response to high inflation. Higher global interest rates and slowing growth of course make things more difficult for Turkey, as do the high oil prices that resulted from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
October 30, 2022 — Americans will go to the polls November 8. It appears probable that they will give the Republican party majority control of the House of Representatives, and possibly the Senate as well. The same for Secretaries of State and other statewide offices. The consequences could be enormous. Especially worrying is the future of US electoral democracy, if the result is further distortions of voter eligibility rules, congressional redistricting, the electoral college, and other structural features. How could such an outcome of the mid-term elections be explained, seeing as how the Republican party is now dominated by its extremist MAGA faction?