Category Archives: Laffer curve

Republican Congressmen Pledge to Repeal the Laws of Arithmetic

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The National Journal asks what would happen if the Pledge to America, proposed last week by congressional Republicans, were fully implemented.

     As I understand it, the authors of the “Pledge to America” want not just to renew permanently all Bush-era tax cuts, but also to balance the budget while exempting social security, Medicare, and military spending.   To ask what would be the effects if the Republicans put this pledge into law is to ask what would be the effects if they repeal the laws of arithmetic.   It can’t be done.  All the money is in the parts of the budget they are putting off limits.  (That is what we all assume they mean by “common sense exceptions for seniors, veterans and troops” when cutting spending.  Admittedly, it is hard to tell what they are really proposing, due to the usual lack of specifics in the 21-page document.)  read more

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Americans save their tax cuts => Federal spending gives more bang-for-buck stimulus.

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Personal saving rose again in the second quarter. “Does this mean the stimulus tax cut has failed, as the 2008 tax cut stimulus did?”, asks The National Journal.

My answer:

Martin Feldstein and others predicted that the tax-cut component of the 2009 fiscal stimulus package would have substantially less expansionary bang-for-the-buck than the spending component of the package, because much of the tax cut would be saved, as had been the case with the 2008 tax cut.  (“Bang for the buck” in this case could be defined as demand stimulus divided by budget cost.)   We knew this from Milton Friedman’s permanent income hypothesis, or even from good old Keynesian multiplier theory. read more

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What Does It Take to Define Away the Statistics Showing Economic Performance Under Democratic Presidents Superior to That Under Republicans?

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Economic Policy Institute, September 2008.

A panel on Supply Side Economics in Washington, September 12, included statistics on the superior performance of the American economy under President Clinton compared to his Republican successor. (The graph to the right, from Ettlinger & Irons, shows the first term of each administration.  The growth gap during the second terms was even wider.)  Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers gave some statistics that included Democratic versus Republican presidents throughout the postwar period.   As others have also pointed out, the Democratic record dominates to a surprising extent.   (The event was jointly sponsored by the Center for American Progress and the Economic Policy Institute.) read more

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