Nov. 10, 2017 — What does international trade have to do with US jobs? Surely the US trade deficit in manufacturing has reduced employment? Not as much as you would think, on net. Continue reading
(June 25, 2017) —
As the US, Mexico and Canada get ready to begin talks on the re-negotiation of NAFTA – possibly as early as August – governments are giving a lot of attention to one particular product: sugar. The outcome will predictably be a sweet deal for the US sugar industry, quite the opposite of Trump promises to “drain the swamp” of disproportionate influence in Washington by special interests. Continue reading
(Jan. 2, 2017) Five journalist’s questions about the economic outlook in the New Year and my answers:
1. In the first year of Trump’s presidency, what do you predict for the US economy in 2017?
The US economy is currently at or near full employment, for the first time in 9 years. So there is limited capacity for an acceleration of growth in the medium term. Mr. Trump is fairly likely to follow through with his proposals for massive tax cuts and spending increases (which the economy needed 5 years ago, but were blocked by Republicans). In the short-term, it may contribute a bit to faster growth. But the economy is likely to run soon into capacity constraints, in which case the fiscal stimulus will show up more as inflation, interest rate rises, and bigger trade deficits. Continue reading