Tag Archives: Business Cycle Dating

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 Has Italy Really “Gone Back Into Recession”?

Italians and the world have now been told that their economy slipped back into recession in the first half of 2014.  This characterization is based on the criterion for recession that is standard in Europe and most countries:  two successive quarters of negative growth.  But if the criteria for determining recessions in European countries were similar to those used in the United States, this new downturn would be a continuation of the 2012 recession in Italy, not a new one.  A common-sense look at the graph below suggests the same conclusion: the 2013 “recovery” is barely visible. read more

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Did GDP Fall Within the 1st Quarter or Not?

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Over the past month, I , citing Feldstein, have said that if one looks at available information on monthly GDP, available from estimates of MacroAdvisers, that output declined within the first quarter of the year, even though as standardly reported GDP was higher in QI overall than it had been in the last quarter of 2007. But, as it turns out, there is some ambiguity to the question.

The estimates do show GDP falling in February, by a hefty 10.1% anualized. But the numbers for January and March are up. To net out the three months, one must split hairs. The positive numbers for January plus March are just slightly greater in absolute value than February’s negative 0.9 (monthly). So the net is up? Not necessarily. read more

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