I am posting in three parts the results of an interview on the year-end outlook. (The questions come from Chosun Daily, leading Korean newspaper. The interview is to be published there in January.)
Part 1. The Global Economy in 2015
Q: Around this time next year, which countries do you predict will be the winners, and which will be the losers of the year?
A: The big gainers will be oil-importing economies, particularly China, India and other Asian countries.
Russia will be the big loser. It has now become clear to all how fragile and vulnerable the Russian economy was, especially with respect to world oil prices. It is easy to forget that commentators a few months ago were declaring Russia less vulnerable to Ukraine-related sanctions than Western Europe. Before that, they were judging the $50 billion 2014 winter Olympics in Sochi a triumph.