Tag Archives: peak

One Recession or Many? Double-Dip Downturns in Europe

 
The recent release of a revised set of GDP statistics by Britain’s Office for National Statistics showed that growth had not quite, as previously thought, been negative for two consecutive quarters in the winter of 2011-12.  The point, as it was reported, was that a UK recession (a second dip after the Great Recession of 2008-09) was now erased from the history books — and that the Conservative government would take a bit of satisfaction from this fact.    But it should not.    

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Did Obama Turn Around the Economy?

With November’s election fast approaching, the Republican candidates seeking to challenge President Barack Obama claim that his policies have done nothing to support recovery from the recession that he inherited in January 2009. If anything, they claim, his fiscal stimulus made matters worse.  And, despite recent improvement, the level of unemployment indeed remains far too high.not blame George W. Bush for the recession that began two months after he took office in 2001. There hadn’t yet been time for bad policies to damage the economy.)

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GDP Reattains Pre-Recession Peak

This morning the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its first estimate for 2011 GDP.   It showed national output for the first time surpassing the pre-recession peak, which occurred in the last quarter of 2007.    (See chart below)    The expansion in 2011 was led by autos, computers, and other manufactured goods.

Given that the economy hit its trough in mid-2009, the long slow climb since then has been disappointing.   The outcome turns out to have been worse than the conventional wisdom that sharp declines tend to be followed by sharp recoveries.   On the other hand, the outcome turns out to have been somewhat better than the Reinhart-Rogoff thesis that when the cause of a recession is a financial crisis, the recovery tends to take many years.  

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A Review of Predictions of the Last Decade

         December 31 is technically the end of the first decade of the 21st century.  It is perhaps an appropriate time to review one’s predictions.    It seems to me that I got some things right over the last decade.  Indulge me while I review the predictions that came true, before turning to those that did not work out as well.

Stock market peak     At the end of the 1990s, I felt that the dizzying ascent of equity prices could not continue into the new decade, that there was “…a bubble component in the stock market”  (Nov. 20, 1999).   This was four months before the bubble burst in 2000.  So far so good.

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NBER Committee Holds Off Declaring Recession’s 2009 End Until It is Sure

The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee this morning posted an announcement that it had met in person April 8 - an infrequent event - but that it had not yet decided to call the trough in the recession that began in December 2007.    The meeting has led to lots of questions from the press over the weekend, for stories that appeared today, and then more questions today in response to those stories.  Here are some of the questions that have come up the most often, and my own personal answers, speaking for myself and not the Committee of which I am a member. Continue reading

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Lag in Job Numbers Behind GDP Growth is No Worse than in Past Recoveries

 

At first glance, the job numbers of the last week seem to offer a mixed and confusing picture.   On the one hand, today’s headline from the Bureau of Labor Statistics certainly sounds like good news:  the unemployment rate finally dropped below 10.0% — to 9.7%.   On the other hand, today’s establishment survey of employment, which most of the time is a more reliable measure than the unemployment rate, still shows job change numbers that are negative.   Furthermore, recent numbers on claims for unemployment benefits have been discouraging.   

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Revised GDP Statistics from the Commerce Department Illuminate the Recession

 

On July 31, the Department of Commerce’s BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) released an important set of numbers regarding GDP.  Of most immediate interest, the advance estimate of GDP growth for the second quarter, April-June, 2009, was a very moderate -1 per cent per annum.  The small magnitude of this negative number confirms an inflection point in the second quarter.   As most of us had already thought, the economy is no longer in the free-fall of October 2008 to March 2009 — when the rate of output contraction was approximately 6% per annum – but, rather, is beginning to level out.     

Furthermore, the figures reveal large depletion of inventories in the second quarter, which offers good grounds for hope that firms will begin to produce more in the second half of the year.  In other words, the economy is probably bottoming out even as we speak.

But even if it turns out that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee eventually puts the trough sometime in the 2nd half of 2009, it will not make that decision until all the facts are in, which will be a long time.    A major reason is that government statistics, especially for GDP, are always revised subsequently.   That brings us to the other big component of the BEA release on Friday:  comprehensive revisions to the GDP numbers going back many years.    The BEA does a comprehensive revision generally every five years.  In this case the statistics were substantially affected, especially those over the last dozen years, as the results of a number of permanent changes in methodology (such as how natural disasters are treated in the accounts).   

These revisions produced two interesting implications for the current recession, quite aside from the question whether it is now ending.  

First, the recession turns out to have been worse than the previous GDP numbers indicated.  During the course of 2008, the economy apparently contracted 1.9%, more than double the previous estimate of 0.8%.      The cumulative decline through the 2009 Q-I now appears to have been 2.8% (as compared to the previously reported 1.8%).    Add in the latest quarter, and the 3% cumulative decline cements the claim of this recession to be the worst since the 1930s.

Second, that revision includes a conversion of the +0.9% that was previously reported for the first quarter of 2008 to the new estimate for that quarter:  -0.7%.

That is important from the viewpoint of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.   Why?     All through 2008 it was difficult to tell whether a recession had started at the end of 2007.   On the one hand, some measures such as employment and real income had peaked then,  but on the other hand it appeared that GDP had continued to grow in early 2008.     Even after the accelerated deterioration in the autumn of 2008, when it could no longer be doubted that the economy was in recession, the signals as to the date of its beginning still conflicted.     

The Committee ended up, on December 1, 2008, declaring that the peak had occurred in December 2007.    As always, there were critics.   Some didn’t see how we could declare that a recession had begun six months before GDP growth turned negative.   “Everybody knows that a recession is defined as two consecutive negative quarters”     (More common, as usual, was the precisely opposite critique:   “The NBER is just now saying what has long been obvious to everyone but them.”)

The new report from the BEA that the first quarter of 2008 was negative after all is thus another piece of evidence that validates the choice of end-2007 as the business cycle peak.   Similarly, it validates the decision by the Committee to have made the call in December, rather than waiting for the BEA revisions of July 31, 2009.  

The bottom line of all of this?    We are less at sea than we had feared.   The data now tell a story that is fairly well delineated, the story of a recession that, though upsettingly severe in amplitude, appears familiarly sinusoidal in shape.

(This post does not necessarily represent the views of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee or its members.  Nor of the BEA or its Advisory Committee members.)

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                                                              I 06   II 06 III 06  IV 06                          I 07  II 07 III 07     IV 07                            I 08    II 08      III 08       IV 08                 I 09

Newly reported GDP        5.4    1.4     .1    3.0               1.2    3.2    3.6    2.1                    -.7    1.5       -2.7     -5.4           -6.4       

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Recession is Now Tied for Longest Since the Great Depression

The Commerce Department this morning announced its advance estimate of last quarter’s real GDP. As expected, the estimate shows that GDP fell in the first quarter of 2009 — by a hefty 6.1 per cent at an annual rate. An implication is that the current recession has just tied the post-war record for longevity.

The previous record-holders were the recessions of 1973-75 and 1981-82, each of them five quarters in length according to the official NBER chronology.  In the current downturn, the NBER’s Business Cycle Data Committee determined that the economy peaked in the 4th quarter of 2007. Although the Committee won’t declare the trough of the recession until well after the fact, and the trough could well be a ways off, a negative 1st quarter of 2009 almost certainly means that the five-quarter benchmark has now been attained.  (The Commerce Department often revises its GDP figures substantially between the advance estimate and the final number, and we are due for major backward-looking revisions in July.  Indeed that is one reason why the NBER always waits so long to issue its findings.  In the past, the size of the average revision has been just over 1 percentage point, whether up or down.   It is highly unlikely that future revisions will change this morning’s negative number into a positive one.)

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NBER Eggheads Finally Proclaim Recession


The National Bureau of Economic Research today announced that its Business Cycle Dating Committee had officially determined a peak in economic activity at December 2007, which signals the start of the recession.    I am a member of the committee.    Though I speak only for myself, not the committee, I offer my views on two questions of possible interest: 

(1)   Who needs the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) anyway?

(2)   Why did we pick December 2007 as the starting month of the recession?

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NOW Are We In Recession?

 

Is the United States in recession?   If one looked solely at the adverse shocks that have hit the economy over the last year, one would infer an unusually high probability of a recession.    If one consulted some of the most import economic measures over the last year, one would say the country clearly entered a recession last January.  If one gauged the popular mood, one would hear, “Of course we are in recession !” 

 

The one criterion that has been missing is the one criterion that people most commonly have in their minds as the definition of a recession:   two consecutive quarters of negative growth.   This morning, October 30, the Commerce Department released the advance estimate of GDP for the 3rd quarter.   It showed a decline.   The decline was small:  just 0.3 per cent at an annual rate; and it is only one quarter, not yet two.    But at this point there can be little doubt that we are really truly in recession. 

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