Yearly Archives: 2008

Origins of the Economic Crisis — In One Chart !

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Every two years, Harvard Kennedy School hosts the newly elected Members of Congress for a three-day “briefing” on a wide variety of topics.   We had an excellent turnout this week: 40 of the 50 new congresspeople, from both parties.    I participated in a panel titled “Understanding the Economic Crisis,”  along with Greg Mankiw, Elizabeth Warren and Robert Lawrence  (on video).    

Trying to explain the origins of the financial crisis and recession in ten minutes, even to the extent any of us understands it, was a tall order.    But I tried to cram it all into a single slide.     Here it is:  read more

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NBER Eggheads Finally Proclaim Recession

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The National Bureau of Economic Research today announced that its Business Cycle Dating Committee had officially determined a peak in economic activity at December 2007, which signals the start of the recession.    I am a member of the committee.    Though I speak only for myself, not the committee, I offer my views on two questions of possible interest: 

(1)   Who needs the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) anyway?

(2)   Why did we pick December 2007 as the starting month of the recession? read more

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The Best, the Brightest, and the Least Arrogant

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Over the last 24 hours, President-Elect Obama has announced five top members of his new economic team.   What do they have in common?   

 

Retreads from the Clinton Administration?    Rubin protégés?   No, not all.                    

  • Scholars from leading universities?     No, not all.                    

  • Friends of mine?    Well, yes, though that is not my point.    As it happens, they have been friends, for 12-to-30 years.    (god forgive me.   There are few greater turnoffs than a columnist who thinks it’s “all about me.”    On the other hand, this isn’t a newspaper column.   It’s just my personal blog.  So what the hell.)    Here is the list:
  •    read more

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