Author Archives: jfrankel

The Historical Puzzle of US Economic Performance under Democrats vs. Republicans

Share Button

March 28, 2024 — We have heard much about the puzzle that US economic performance under President Joe Biden has been much stronger than voters perceive it to be.  But the current episode is just one instance of a bigger historical puzzle:  the US economy has since World War II consistently done better under Democratic presidents than under Republican presidents.  This fact is even less widely known, including among Democratic voters, than the truth about Biden’s term.  Indeed, some poll results suggest that more Americans believe the reverse, that Republican presidents are better stewards of the economy than Democrats. read more

Share Button

Six Explanations for Misperceptions Regarding the Strong Economy

Share Button

February 25, 2024 — By now, quite a variety of explanations have been offered for the puzzle that the unusually good state of the US economy has not been reflected in public opinion surveys, and especially not in polls regarding President Joe Biden’s bid for re-election in November.  At least six hypotheses have been put forward regarding the performance-perception gap.

Perception biases

  1. Some charge that the official statistics must be wrong, out-of-touch, failing to capture the true state of the economy. This hypothesis is itself wrong.  While any given number is subject to measurement error, the evidence from a wide variety of statistics, most of them gathered separately, has been overwhelming.  They tell a very positive story, whether one looks at the measures of economic growth (GDP), strength in the labor market (jobs created or unemployment), or inflation (either CPI or PCE, and either headline or core).

Media commentary over the last two years has emphasized that the economy and job market have been slowing down.  They usually fail to note that, although this is true relative to the breakneck growth of the year that immediately followed the 2020  pandemic shutdown, the current rates of expansion of GDP and employment are above their post-2000 averages. read more

Share Button

Helping Ukraine is a National Security No-brainer

Share Button

January 28, 2024 — Much is difficult to understand about what has happened to one of our two political parties.   Among other things, I don’t understand why some Republican congresspeople oppose an extension of US support for the government of Ukraine in its fight against the Russian invasion, and why others who may be in favor of continuing support give it so low priority as to allow their colleagues to block it, by holding it hostage to unrelated Mexican border concerns.

Weighing costs and benefits, backing Ukraine is one of the most sensible US foreign affairs policy priorities in a long time. As Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky said earlier this month, “Giving us money or giving us weapons, you support yourself.” read more

Share Button