Category Archives: inflation

Americans can’t afford Trump’s inflationary policies

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May 31, 2026 — Political leaders find it difficult to deal with inflation.  Even in those cases when incomes rise faster than prices, voters complain bitterly about inflation’s effect on them.  Even when inflation occurs throughout the world, the public in each country holds its own politicians responsible.

And even when an individual country is indeed subject to unusually high inflation, there is often little its leaders can do about it.  The most salient policy lever at the government’s disposal, insuring tight monetary policy, takes time to show up in inflation numbers, and usually comes at the cost of lost output and employment. read more

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Why didn’t Trump’s tariffs crash the economy in 2025?

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December 31, 2025 — As Donald Trump took office last January, most economists worried that he might adopt the high tariffs he had campaigned on, raising prices of consumer goods and inputs that US households and firms had to pay.  The result would be an increase in inflation, at the same time as a fall in real income.  As a supply shock, it would not be the sort of development that the Federal Reserve could counteract. The damage would be especially large if other countries chose to retaliate with tariffs of their own. read more

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Trump’s policies will predictably work to raise inflation

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November 11, 2024 – The two areas where Donald Trump worries me the most are US foreign policy and long-run damage to norms of truth, democracy, and respect for the rule of law.  But these areas are not top priorities for much of the American public.  Rather, voters are consistently reported to be most concerned with the economy.  They asked, “Are we better off than we were four years ago” and answered “no.”  This is itself remarkable, since four years ago would be November 2020, when covid deaths were running 10,000 per week and unemployment was 6.7 %, versus 4.1 % today. read more

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