Author Archives: jfrankel

Job Market Confirms End of Recession

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The recession is over.   The last piece has fallen into place, with the BLS announcement that employment rose in March.

Identifying the beginnings and ends of recessions has been difficult in recent decades because the two most important indicators, output and employment, have sometimes behaved differently from each other.  Most notoriously, in the recovery that began in November 2001, employment lagged far behind economic growth.  If one had gone by the labor market, one might have called it a three year recession.  But if one had gone by GDP, one might have wondered whether there was a recession at all. read more

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Red States, Blue States and the Distribution of Federal Spending

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           April 1 is Census Day.  Evidently Glenn Beck and Michele Bachmann have been encouraging Americans to boycott the census — to refuse to fill out the whole form.   This protest follows from their small government ideology.

           I am not always sure what they, or Republicans, or Tea Party participants mean by small government.  They say they want a government that intervenes less in the economic sphere.   Perhaps they don’t like the idea that the census numbers are used, among other things, to determine the allocation of federal spending across states, because they don’t think it is the business of the government to redistribute income.  That is “socialism.”    Even “Stalinism.” read more

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The Copenhagen Accord on Climate Change: Countries Submit 2020 Emission Goals

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Most observers judged as a failure the December meeting in Copenhagen of the Conference of Parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).    But then the usual way of judging such meetings is to look for a communiqué that voices sweeping aspirations, such as the G-7 “decision” at L’Aquila last summer to limit global warming to 2 degrees centigrade.   In reality, without any evidence of countries agreeing what is each one’s share of the burden, such proclamations are worthless.  Better tiny steps on the ground than giant flights of rhetoric. read more

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