Author Archives: jfrankel

The Labor Market is Still Down — “Master Your Statistics, So They Don’t Master You”

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The quip “There are three kinds of lies:  lies, damn lies, and statistics” is variously attributed to Benjamin Disraeli or Mark Twain.   What should the public make of government statistics, such as the monthly employment report released today, Thursday, July 2, by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)?  

 

There is no lying in US government statistics.   But there are always commentators who will use the numbers to make whatever point they want.     One should learn enough to be able to interpret the numbers for oneself.     That is the only way to prevent being misled. read more

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How to Set Greenhouse Gas Emission Targets for All Countries

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The effects of a changing global climate show up gradually, decade by decade.The effects of a changing US political climate have also been showing up gradually, year by year.A watershed was reached June 25, when the US Congress for the first time approved a bill to limit emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs), by a vote of 219 to 212.But the Senate hurdle will be tougher.  The attempt to address Climate Change still has a very long way to go.

 

The problem

 

Climate Change is of course a global externality.Due to the free-rider problem, no single country, especially the United States, is likely to act on its own.The best solution is a multilateral treaty in which all countries commit to serious action together. In December of this year, a Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change will meet in Copenhagen, in the hope of negotiating a successor treaty to the Kyoto Protocol. read more

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The labor market has NOT yet signaled a turning point

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The rate of decline in employment moderated substantially in May, according to the BLS figures released June 5, to about half the monthly rate of job loss recorded over the preceding six months (345,000 vs. 642,000).    The news was received in a variety of ways. 

 

First, the cynics.  They tend to wax sarcastic at the idea of “things are not getting worse quite as fast as they were” as a good-news proposition.    But a wide variety of recent data indicate that the economy is no longer in the state of free-fall that it entered last September, and this is indeed good news.  To begin to level off is the first step toward the start of the recovery. read more

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