Author Archives: jfrankel

A Resilience Case for International Trade

Share Button

July 3, 2022 — Some new problems have afflicted the economy in the last year.  Two examples come from the US:  blockages in supply chain logistics and a critical shortage in infant milk formula. One problem applies to the EU even more than to the US: energy scarcity due to sanctions against Russian fossil fuel exports.  And one applies almost everywhere: inflation.

Some have associated these four problems with what is said to be excessive dependence on international trade, that is, with globalization.  Consequently, deglobalization, fragmentation, reshoring, friend-shoring, decoupling, and resilience have become popular buzzwords.  The feeling is that individual countries would not have been so exposed to shocks if they had been more self-sufficient. read more

Share Button

No, the US is Not in Recession

Share Button

A shorter version of this commentary appeared in Barron’s magazine, June 8, 2022. For a video interview, see BNN/Bloomberg, June 8.

June 9, 2022 — US consumer sentiment, by one measure, is at its lowest level since 2011. More Americans say they hear mostly negative news about the economy than hear positive news, or a balance of positive and negative.  Most remarkably, 57% tell pollsters they believe we are currently in recession versus only 21% who do not.

So, is the US economy already in a recession?  No.  People are unhappy with inflation, which has recently been running 8.3 % [CPI change, from April 2021 to April 2022].  That is the highest since 1982.  But inflation is not recession. Recession is defined as a significant decline in economic activity.  Economic activity is not falling. Quite the contrary: it has been booming.  It is worth spelling out the evidence. read more

Share Button

Get Ready for “Reverse Currency Wars”

Share Button

May 28, 2022  — The US dollar is up 12 % against the euro over the last year.  Having moved from 1.21 $/€ in May 2021 to 1.07 $/€ today, the exchange rate seems to be approaching one-to-one parity for the first time.  Europeans are not happy about it. If you think that prices for oil and other commodities are high now in terms of dollars, you should see what they look like in terms of euros.  Get ready for “reverse currency wars.”

The regular sort of currency wars featured countries feeling aggrieved that their trading partners were deliberately pursuing policies to weaken their own currencies.  The feared motive would be gaining unfair advantage in international trade.  The original phrase “currency wars” was a colorful description of what international economists had (more informatively) long called “competitive devaluations” or, when exchange rates float, “competitive depreciation.” read more

Share Button