Author Archives: jfrankel

ESG investing, versus those who would ban it

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February 27, 2023 — The popular ESG movement advocates judging firms, not just by what they generate for shareholders in short-term profits, but by their emphasis on environmental, social, and governance goals.  The movement has its detractors, particularly in the United States.  A counter-movement is gathering steam. It would prohibit some financial institutions from investing in firms that follow ESG practices.

To be sure, ESG does warrant some skepticism.  Often, corporate commitments are essentially mere exercises in public relations.  But those who, in the name of economic freedom, would ban private investors from pursuing ESG goals are logically confused. read more

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Crashing Through the Debt Ceiling

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January 31, 2023 — The US federal debt hit its legal limit, $31.4 trillion, on Thursday, January 19, 2023.  Everyone feels that they have seen this movie before: there is no need for alarm because the politicians will strike a deal at the last moment.  But this time, the movie could well end tragically, as a result of the intransigence of Republicans in Congress.  It is likely that they will refuse to raise the debt ceiling until after they have driven the car over the cliff.  This could mean a once unthinkable default by the US government.  Unfortunately, letting them do that may be the best strategy available to President Joe Biden when the time comes. read more

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New-Year Outlook & Countries’ Past Mistakes

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Jan. 2, 2023 — Chosun Ilbo asks about the new year (in Korean).

Q: There are various opinions on the possibility of an economic downturn. Do you have a positive or pessimistic for the economy in 2023? How likely is it that there will be a recession this year in terms of percentage?

JF: A slowdown in the world economy is very likely over the next few years, due to higher interest rates. The outlook is worse in Europe and East Asia than in the US, because they are more vulnerable to high prices for oil and other commodities.  However, I am less pessimistic than the many observers who talk as if a recession in 2023 is certain. I put the odds of a recession in the coming year at no worse than 50 %. read more

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