Author Archives: jfrankel

Why Might Americans Vote the Extremist Party?

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October 30, 2022  — Americans will go to the polls November 8.  It appears probable that they will give the Republican party majority control of the House of Representatives, and possibly the Senate as well.  The same for Secretaries of State and other statewide offices.  The consequences could be enormous. Especially worrying is the future of US electoral democracy, if the result is further distortions of voter eligibility rules, congressional redistricting, the electoral college, and other structural features.  How could such an outcome of the mid-term elections be explained, seeing as how the Republican party is now dominated by its extremist MAGA faction? read more

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The Dollar Dazzles Once More

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September 24, 2022 — The dollar is sky-high.  Since May 2021, it has risen 19 % against Europe’s euro, even reaching 1-to-1 parity in recent weeks. The dollar has appreciated 20 % against Britain’s pound.  And it is up 28 % against Japan’s yen, provoking the Bank of Japan to sell dollars on September 22, essentially the first foreign exchange intervention by a G-7 country since 2011 and the first in the direction of supporting a currency’s value against the dollar since the euro in 2000. read more

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Global Recession is Not Inevitable

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August 28, 2022 — Project Syndicate asked, “Is a Global Recession Inevitable?”   Steven Roach says, “yes”;  Anne Krueger says, “Depends…Certainly not inevitable”; & Jim O’Neill says, “Quite possible.”

My answer to the question, Is a global recession inevitable:

No. A global recession is entirely “evitable.”

True, the odds of a downturn are high in Europe, hard-hit by the need to manage winter without Russian natural gas; China, where Covid shutdowns already turned growth negative last quarter; and Emerging Market and Developing Economies, many of which have debt troubles. read more

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