June 10, 2020 — Evidently France is re-reading Strange Defeat, a 1940 book by Marc Bloch that analyzed how the country fell so quickly to German invasion in World War II.
Germany’s Defeat of France in 1940
Author Archives: jfrankel
How China Compares Internationally in New GDP Figures
May 31, 2020 — The World Bank on May 19, as it does every six years, released the results of the most recent International Comparison Program (ICP), which measures price levels and GDPs across 176 countries. The new results are striking. It is surprising that they have received almost no attention so far, perhaps overshadowed by all things coronavirus.
For the first time, the ICP shows China’s total real income as slightly larger than the US. It reports that China’s GDP was $19,617 billion in 2017, in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms, while the United States’ GDP stood at $19,519 billion.
Risk of Rapid Re-opening
May 11, 2020 — This interview by Associated Press is the basis of quotes in a story today: “Risk of reopening US economy too fast: A W-shaped recovery.”
- AP: To what extent is the push to reopen the economy making a W-shaped recovery more likely?
JF: I believe that the push to reopen the economy is making a W-shaped recovery very much more likely.
- AP: What should we be doing to produce the best economic outcome?
JF: Widespread reopening should wait for certain conditions to be met. The conditions include:
- a sustained decline in mortality rates (not just the attainment of a peak);
- the easy availability of frequent testing (in reality, not just as a White House claim);
- and perhaps ultimately the discovery and testing of a vaccine and/or treatment (which will take time).
- AP: At this point what type of recovery do you see as most likely?
JF: Unfortunately, I would guess that a W-shaped pattern is the most likely, as premature withdrawal of government measures leads to relapses in health of the population and health of the economy.