Author Archives: jfrankel

Trump escalates China trade war

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August 5, 2019 — The China’s People’s Daily in an interview had three questions about the US threat of August 1 to apply tariffs on the remainder of Chinese goods.

  1. As the tariff list of Trump now covers all the goods from China, economists are warning that consumers will pay more for the tariff. Do you share this concern?

JF Answer:
Yes, the additional tariffs — 10% on the remaining $ 300 billion of imports from China — will clearly raise the price that American consumers have to pay for many items.  This is one reason I am concerned.

2. It seems the trade war between the two countries will not end soon. Do you see any evidence that it’s having more impact on global economy? read more

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Let’s Forget about 2% Inflation

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July 28, 2019 — The Fed has some reasons for cutting interest rates at its meeting July 31, or subsequently if the US economy weakens. (And there are some good arguments on the other side as well, if growth remains as strong as it has been over the last year.)  But I find less persuasive one argument for easing: a perceived imperative to get inflation up to 2.0% or higher.

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Tenth birthday of the June 2009 recovery

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June 17, 2019 — This month marks the 10th birthday of the US economic recovery.  June 2009  saw the “trough,” the end of the Great Recession of 2007-09. (As always, a declaration that the recession was over could as easily have been phrased less cheerfully as a declaration that the economy had hit “rock bottom.”)

Why such a long expansion?

Who or what deserves credit for the length of the expansion?

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