March 26, 2018 — Caijing Magazine asked me the following questions about US steel tariffs on 3/14.
Answer: I see trade wars lurking around the corner. They are not yet here for sure. But recent developments are very worrying.
Of course it will not be easy for the US to win a trade war. This is one of the most foolish things Trump has said
March 22, 2018 — Declining growth rates in productivity and GDP have been observed in recent years. A variety of explanations have been offered.
The most prominent explanations involve technology. On the one hand, Robert Gordon (2016) has argued persuasively that we should not expect Information and Communications Technology (ICT) and other technological innovations of recent years to have as big an economic payoff as electricity, the automobile, and other technological revolutions of the past. On the other hand, Martin Feldstein (2017) has argued persuasively that productivity growth is higher than we realize, because government statistics “grossly understate the value of improvements in the quality of existing goods and services” and “don’t even try to measure the full contribution,” of new goods and services, and that these measurement errors are probably becoming more important over time.
March 9, 2018 — PBS NewsHour asked some of us six questions about the new tariffs. My responses appear below. The others’ are at: “Trump’s tariffs will do more harm than good, experts say,” March 8.
PBS: Would President Trump’s proposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports help create more jobs in the United States, as he argues?
JF: The import tariffs are likely to create a few jobs specifically in the US firms that make steel and aluminum. The important point, however, is that such positive effects will be far outweighed by negative effects on other sectors.