Author Archives: jfrankel

Solving Western Water Shortages

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May 31, 2023 — A two-decade drought in the western United States, the worst in more than 1,000 years, has pushed chronic water shortages to a critical point, notwithstanding above-average precipitation this past winter.  Similar water shortages afflict Europe and some parts of Africa, Asia, Australia, and Latin America.

Forty million people in western US states get much of their water from the Colorado River. On May 22, their representatives reached a supposedly historic agreement to solve their conflicting claims for the time being.  California, Arizona and Nevada managed to negotiate how to allocate reductions of 14% by 2026, in water drawn from the river. read more

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Restructuring the Debt of African Commodity-Exporters

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April 28, 2023 —  An estimated 61 countries are currently in debt distress or at risk of it, which is almost one third of the membership of the IMF [32% of 190].  The G20’s Common Framework for Debt Treatment is supposed to facilitate debt restructuring for low-income countries.  But it has made only slow progress.

Many of these countries are in Africa.  Chad restructured its debt in 2021, the first to do so under the Common Framework. Zambia defaulted on its foreign debt in 2020, but has so far been unsuccessful in getting its creditors to agree on how to restructure its debt.  Reluctance of China to participate with other creditors in the traditional Paris Club process is a particular problem in the Zambian case.  Ghana, which defaulted on its external debt in December 2022, has apparently been better able to move forward with restructuring.  Rescheduling of the terms of Ethiopia’s debt was delayed by civil war, but may move forward now.  Angola received 3-year debt relief in September 2020, but remains in trouble. read more

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Fifty Years of Floating

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March 26, 2023 —  This month marks the 50th anniversary of the date, in March 1973, when the dollar, yen, deutschemark, pound, and other major currencies went untethered, their relative values to be determined thenceforth by foreign exchange markets rather than by governments.  The abandonment of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates was generally viewed as a policy failure. The movement from fixed to flexible exchange rates, however, was better viewed as part of a natural long-term process. read more

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