(Jan. 16, 2017) At the end of his time in office Barack Obama merits an enumeration of some of his many accomplishments. The recollection should start as he started, on January 20, 2009: the pilot taking the cockpit just when the plane was in an uncontrolled dive.
(Jan. 2, 2017) Five journalist’s questions about the economic outlook in the New Year and my answers:
1. In the first year of Trump’s presidency, what do you predict for the US economy in 2017?
The US economy is currently at or near full employment, for the first time in 9 years. So there is limited capacity for an acceleration of growth in the medium term. Mr. Trump is fairly likely to follow through with his proposals for massive tax cuts and spending increases (which the economy needed 5 years ago, but were blocked by Republicans). In the short-term, it may contribute a bit to faster growth. But the economy is likely to run soon into capacity constraints, in which case the fiscal stimulus will show up more as inflation, interest rate rises, and bigger trade deficits.
(Dec. 29, 2016) Several countries are undergoing “demonetization” or currency reforms in which the government recalls bills of particular denomination that are circulation and replaces them with new notes. Some of these initiatives are going better than others.
India is still reeling from the consequences of Prime Minister Modi’s announcement on November 8 that 500- and 1000-rupee denomination bills, which constitute 86 % of the cash in circulation, could no longer be used and that residents have until the end of December to turn them in.