In 2008, the global financial system was grievously infected by so-called toxic assets originating in the United States. As a result of the crisis, many have asked what fundamental rethinking will be necessary to save macroeconomic theory. Some answers may lie with models that have in the past been applied to fit the realities of emerging markets — models that are at home with the financial market imperfections that have now unexpectedly turned up in industrialized countries. The imperfections include default risk, asymmetric information, incentive incompatibility, procyclicality of capital flows, procyclicality of fiscal policy, imperfect property rights, and other flawed institutions. To be sure, many of these theories had been first constructed in the context of industrialized economies, but they had not become mainstream there. Only in the context of less advanced economies were the imperfections undeniable. There the models thrived.
Category Archives: monetary policy
The Pot Again Calls the Kettle Red: Republicans, Democrats, the Fed and QE2
Some conservatives are attacking current U.S. monetary policy as being too expansionary, as likely to lead to excessive inflation and debauchment of the currency. The Weekly Standard is promoting a letter to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke that urges a reversal of its policy of QE2, its new round of monetary easing. The letter is signed by a list of conservatives, most of whom are well-known Republican economists, some associated with political candidates. Apparently the driving force is David Malpass, who was an official in the Reagan Treasury, and he is taking out newspaper ads later this week. This follows similar attacks on the Fed by politicians Sarah Palin, Mike Pence, and Paul Ryan.
Gold: A Rival for the Dollar
Robert Zoellick put a few sentences about gold toward the end of a column in today’s FT that are drawing a lot of attention. I doubt very much if the World Bank President has in mind a return to the gold standard, but goldbugs and critics alike are talking as if he does.
Even if one placed overwhelming weight on the objective of price stability — enough weight to contemplate a rigid straightjacket for monetary policy — gold would not be a suitable anchor. The economy would be hostage to the vagaries of the world gold market, as it was in the 19th century: suffering inflation during periods of gold discoveries and deflation during periods of gold drought. This is well-known. I am confident Zoellick understands it. (He and I were in the same macroeconomics seminar at Swarthmore College in the 1970s.)
