August 28, 2022 — Project Syndicate asked, “Is a Global Recession Inevitable?”   Steven Roach says, “yes”;  Anne Krueger says, “Depends…Certainly not inevitable”; & Jim O’Neill says, “Quite possible.”

My answer to the question, Is a global recession inevitable:

No. A global recession is entirely “evitable.”

True, the odds of a downturn are high in Europe, hard-hit by the need to manage winter without Russian natural gas; China, where Covid shutdowns already turned growth negative last quarter; and Emerging Market and Developing Economies, many of which have debt troubles. read more

July 21, 2022 — On July 28, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its advance estimate of economic growth, as measured by GDP, in the just-completed second quarter of the year.  The announcement is attracting more than the usual eager anticipation.  The reason is that many observers predict that the Q2 GDP number will be negative and that this will officially confirm widespread beliefs that the economy went into recession in the first half of 2022, figuring that growth in national output is already determined to have been negative in the 1st quarter of the year. After all, isn’t a recession defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth? read more