Nov. 24, 2024 –When the US election was called for Donald Trump the night of November 5, the stock market rose but the bond market fell. The yield on 10-year US government bonds increased from 4.3 % to 4.4%, where it remained 10 days later. The long-term rate had been below 4.0 % in September. The combination – stock market up but bond market down – strongly suggests that the news of Trump’s victory was seen as implying higher government budget deficit and debt numbers in the future.
March 24, 2019 — Donald Trump has postponed until April the supposed deadline for a conclusion to China-US trade negotiations. A good outcome for both sides would have China agree to better protect private property rights and to reduce the role of the state in its economy; the US agree to strengthen national saving and public investment; and both sides agree in the short-term to reverse their recent tariff increases and the resulting shrinkage of international markets. Unfortunately this deal is not likely to happen.