Isn’t this what a soft landing would look like?

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July 19, 2023 — A skydiver jumps out of an airplane, apparently without a working parachute. On the way down, a passing hang-glider calls out to ask how he is doing.  The plummeting man shouts back “Okay, so far!”

For many, the US economy resembles the skydiver.  But they are probably wrong.

  1. Expectations of a hard landing

Many think a hard landing became inevitable when the Fed in March 2022 began a series of interest rate hikes, which totals 5.0 percentage points so far and is expected to continue. Many economists, as well as the public, have been confidently predicting a recession for over a year now, or even saying that it has already begun.  In June 2022, 57% of respondents told pollsters that they believed the US was already in recession, versus only 21% who did not.  An inverted yield curve in bond markets suggests that the financial sector, too, has been expecting a downturn.  The word “recession” appeared far more often in public media during the last year than is usual even in the midst of a true recession. read more

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Seeking Sustainability in US Debt

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June 19, 2023 — After an interval when little attention was paid to the long-run prognosis for government debt, its sustainability is again front-and-center in the United States, as in many other countries.  The reason is not the concocted debt ceiling crisis, which was resolved at the end of May, two days before a looming default. A likely reason is, rather, the big increase in interest rates over the last year.

So long as interest rates, both nominal and real, were historically low — even close to zero in 2021 — it seemed fine for the government to borrow.  In particular, short-term real interest rates, that is, nominal interest rates minus expected inflation, were negative.  But now that interest payments on the national debt have risen, with more to come, the situation doesn’t look so benign. read more

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Solving Western Water Shortages

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May 31, 2023 — A two-decade drought in the western United States, the worst in more than 1,000 years, has pushed chronic water shortages to a critical point, notwithstanding above-average precipitation this past winter.  Similar water shortages afflict Europe and some parts of Africa, Asia, Australia, and Latin America.

Forty million people in western US states get much of their water from the Colorado River. On May 22, their representatives reached a supposedly historic agreement to solve their conflicting claims for the time being.  California, Arizona and Nevada managed to negotiate how to allocate reductions of 14% by 2026, in water drawn from the river. read more

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