How to Set Greenhouse Gas Emission Targets for All Countries

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The effects of a changing global climate show up gradually, decade by decade.The effects of a changing US political climate have also been showing up gradually, year by year.A watershed was reached June 25, when the US Congress for the first time approved a bill to limit emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs), by a vote of 219 to 212.But the Senate hurdle will be tougher.  The attempt to address Climate Change still has a very long way to go.

 

The problem

 

Climate Change is of course a global externality.Due to the free-rider problem, no single country, especially the United States, is likely to act on its own.The best solution is a multilateral treaty in which all countries commit to serious action together. In December of this year, a Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change will meet in Copenhagen, in the hope of negotiating a successor treaty to the Kyoto Protocol. read more

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The labor market has NOT yet signaled a turning point

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The rate of decline in employment moderated substantially in May, according to the BLS figures released June 5, to about half the monthly rate of job loss recorded over the preceding six months (345,000 vs. 642,000).    The news was received in a variety of ways. 

 

First, the cynics.  They tend to wax sarcastic at the idea of “things are not getting worse quite as fast as they were” as a good-news proposition.    But a wide variety of recent data indicate that the economy is no longer in the state of free-fall that it entered last September, and this is indeed good news.  To begin to level off is the first step toward the start of the recovery. read more

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Telling China to Stop Buying Dollars Now Would Be More Foolish Than Before

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The current visit of Secretary Tim Geithner to Beijing once again shines the spotlight on the Renminbi (RMB) and on demands by US politicians that the People’s Bank of China (the country’s central bank) abandon the peg to the dollar.  

 

Throughout the period 2003-2008, I, as some others, have thought that demands from American politicians of both parties that China loosen the dollar link have been misguided in a number of particulars.    They were misguided in thinking that an appreciation of the RMB would, alone, do much to boost US output or employment.  The demands were especially misguided in putting such high priority on the entire exchange rate issue, given that we need China’s help on more important things, such as preventing a nuclear-armed North Korea.   But my arguments during this period might reasonably have been viewed by non-wonks as quibbles.   After all, I did agree, along with a majority of other economists, that an increase in the flexibility of China’s exchange rate would be a good thing. read more

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