June 17, 2019 — This month marks the 10th birthday of the US economic recovery. June 2009 saw the “trough,” the end of the Great Recession of 2007-09. (As always, a declaration that the recession was over could as easily have been phrased less cheerfully as a declaration that the economy had hit “rock bottom.”)
Why such a long expansion?
Who or what deserves credit for the length of the expansion?
Donald Trump on May 5 suddenly revealed that a trade agreement with China was not imminent after all. To the contrary, the Administration on May 10 raised its earlier 10 percent tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods to 25%, and threatened to extend 25% tariffs to the remainder of imports from China by late June (roughly $300 billion of goods). China, of course, retaliated against US exports [announcing reciprocal 25% tariffs on $60 billion of US goods, to start June 1. Surprised stock markets fell in response, with the S&P 500 down 4 per cent over the first week of the renewed trade war.