December 30, 2018 –– I realize that compiling a list of one’s own past forecasts is self-indulgent. But perhaps there are readers who will indulge me too, as I run through six predictions that – it seems to me – were mostly proven right this past year.
December 25, 2018 — I was asked for 2 or 3 end-of-year book recommendations. My choices are Pinker, Irwin & Clausing.
(The choices of others can be found at Project Syndicate or winnowed down.)
Dec. 13, 2018 — When President George H.W. Bush was laid to rest earlier this month, the remembrances appropriately remarked on his general decency and competence. In public commentary, the encomiums tend to be followed by a “but.” For journalists and historians, it is “but he was only a one-term president.” He lost the election of 1992, in part because of the recession of 1990-91. For members of his own political party, the “but” is, “but he broke with the legacy of Ronald Reagan and with his own ‘no new taxes’ pledge.” They have always blamed his failure to win re-election on that perceived betrayal.