(9/7/2015) It is tempting to view economic events in China through a single template: the view that they are driven by government intervention because the authorities haven’t learned to let the market operate.
(4/16/2015) The possibility of devaluation is apparently an issue in the upcoming Argentine elections. (The forward rate for next year is about 13 pesos per dollar, which is close to the informal rate and suggests a big devaluation relative to the current official exchange rate of 8.) In this connection, an Argentine newspaper has asked me about “Contractionary Currency Crashes,” a paper that I presented as the 5th Mundell-Fleming Lecture of the IMF’s Annual Research Conference.
(1/1/2015) This is the third and final installment of an interview on the outlook for the New Year.
Part 3. Forecasts for International Currency and Commodity Markets