The Queen of England during the summer asked economists why no one had predicted the credit crunch and recession. Paul Krugman points out that, inasmuch as economists can almost never predict the timing of recessions (and don’t claim to be able to), the real questions are worse. The real questions are, rather how macroeconomists (most) could have gotten it so wrong as to believe that:
(i) a severe recession was not even looming ahead as a potential danger, and
(ii) a breakdown of many of the world’s most liquid financial markets, in New York and London, was impossible to imagine.
Tag Archives: Krugman
Reactions to Geithner’s Public-Private Investment Program
Secretary Tim Geithner announced today the long-awaited details on the financial repair plan that he promised on February 10. Some reactions have been negative, both from the left and the right. Paul Krugman, for example, argues that the plan does not go far enough in forcing banks to recognize the fallen value of their assets.
But the stock market was “dazzled” by Geithner’s explanation of the PPIP proposal, with prices up strongly. The plan has no shortage of defenders. Brad DeLong makes some good points, and responds to Krugman. The Geithner Plan is an improvement over the Paulson plan in that when “toxic assets,” now called “legacy assets,” are bought from the banks, their prices are set by private bidding (from hedge funds and private equity companies), rather than by an overworked Treasury official pulling a number out of the air and risking that the taxpayer grossly overpays for the assets. On similar grounds, Nouriel Roubini has surprised the cynics by giving (qualified) support for the plan, and points out that its design appears to follow a recent proposal by my Harvard colleage Lucien Bebchuk.
The Tenth-Ranked Quotation of 2008: Atheists & Libertarians
The Yale Book of Quotations provides a useful service: It tabulates well-known sound-bites, but tries to get the exact quote and citation right, which is rare. (P.T. Barnum in fact never said “There is a sucker born every minute.” Richard Nixon never said “But it would be wrong.” Etc.) The editor also compiles an annual list of Top Ten Quotes of the Year. In the second week of December he released the list for 2008. Number 1, for example, is “I can see Russia from my house” (carefully attributed to the Tina Fey parody rather than precisely what Sarah Palin originally said).
