March 5, 2018 — Why has the dollar fallen since January 2017? My answer is an economic turnaround in the rest of the world. Also the level of the dollar remains rather high. But Larry Summers has a different answer.
(Jan. 2, 2017) Five journalist’s questions about the economic outlook in the New Year and my answers:
1. In the first year of Trump’s presidency, what do you predict for the US economy in 2017?
The US economy is currently at or near full employment, for the first time in 9 years. So there is limited capacity for an acceleration of growth in the medium term. Mr. Trump is fairly likely to follow through with his proposals for massive tax cuts and spending increases (which the economy needed 5 years ago, but were blocked by Republicans). In the short-term, it may contribute a bit to faster growth. But the economy is likely to run soon into capacity constraints, in which case the fiscal stimulus will show up more as inflation, interest rate rises, and bigger trade deficits.
(Sept. 26, 2016) The train of American electoral politics has gone further and further “off the rails” in recent decades. A number of suspected culprits have been identified as the specific fundamental flaw in the system that needs to be fixed. Gerrymandering. Campaign finance. Economic inequality. “False balance” in the media.