(May 20, 2016) The ITC Wednesday released its mandated report on the economic effects estimated to result from the TransPacific Partnership. As is usual in standard trade models, the estimated welfare gains may sound small: on the order of ¼ % of income. But that would still be way worth doing. Furthermore the ITC study, by design, leaves out a lot. For example, the Petri-Plummer study from the Peterson Institute estimates income gains from TPP that are twice as large, in part because it takes into account Melitz-style opportunities for more productive firms to expand.
Category Archives: Asia
The Threat to US Global Leadership
(April 15, 2016) President Barack Obama has had a remarkable series of foreign policy triumphs over the last 12 months. One of the lesser-known was the passage of legislation for reform of the IMF on December 18, 2015, after five years of obstruction by the US Congress.
China’s Slowdown
(Jan. 22, 2016) Investors worldwide are closely watching the steep decline in China’s stock market. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index is down more than 40% since June 2015.
The reason observers are concerned is not because they themselves are invested: China’s stocks are overwhelmingly held by Chinese themselves. Rather, many are interpreting it as evidence that China’s economy is going down the tubes.
