(Dec. 20, 2016) A year-end summing up of where we stand is harder than usual this time!
Category Archives: international trade
Brexit, Trump, and Workers Left Behind
(July 19, 2016) Observers have pointed out many parallels between the June referendum on Brexit in the United Kingdom and Donald Trump’s presidential campaign in the US. One parallel is that both the British movement to leave the EU and the Trump campaign for the American Republican nomination achieved success that few had expected, particularly not the various elites. In both cases, the general interpretation is that the elites underestimated the anger of working class voters who feel they have been left behind by economic forces in a fast-changing world, and in particular by globalization.
Talk on trade: TPP & Trump
(May 20, 2016) The ITC Wednesday released its mandated report on the economic effects estimated to result from the TransPacific Partnership. As is usual in standard trade models, the estimated welfare gains may sound small: on the order of ¼ % of income. But that would still be way worth doing. Furthermore the ITC study, by design, leaves out a lot. For example, the Petri-Plummer study from the Peterson Institute estimates income gains from TPP that are twice as large, in part because it takes into account Melitz-style opportunities for more productive firms to expand.