January 1, 2009, is the tenth birthday of the euro. On this occasion, everyone has been taking stock. The record of the euro shows both pluses and minuses. Looking back, the euro has in many ways been more successful than predicted by the skeptics — many of them American economists. (The Europeans love to quote Martin Feldstein as having predicted that EMU could lead to civil war.) The historic transition to a monetary union among 11 countries in 1999 went smoothly; the euro instantly became the world’s number two international currency; and the officials of the European Central Bank (ECB) have from the beginning worked as citizens of Europe rather than as representatives of home constituencies. After a rocky start, the euro has achieved a strong value; the ECB has achieved a strong reputation (the tradition of the Bundesbank has not been diluted as feared); and new members to the East have achieved membership in the club. Slovakia becomes the 16th country to join, on January 1.
The Tenth-Ranked Quotation of 2008: Atheists & Libertarians
The Yale Book of Quotations provides a useful service: It tabulates well-known sound-bites, but tries to get the exact quote and citation right, which is rare. (P.T. Barnum in fact never said “There is a sucker born every minute.” Richard Nixon never said “But it would be wrong.” Etc.) The editor also compiles an annual list of Top Ten Quotes of the Year. In the second week of December he released the list for 2008. Number 1, for example, is “I can see Russia from my house” (carefully attributed to the Tina Fey parody rather than precisely what Sarah Palin originally said).
Origins of the Economic Crisis — In One Chart !
Every two years, Harvard Kennedy School hosts the newly elected Members of Congress for a three-day “briefing” on a wide variety of topics. We had an excellent turnout this week: 40 of the 50 new congresspeople, from both parties. I participated in a panel titled “Understanding the Economic Crisis,” along with Greg Mankiw, Elizabeth Warren and Robert Lawrence (on video).
Trying to explain the origins of the financial crisis and recession in ten minutes, even to the extent any of us understands it, was a tall order. But I tried to cram it all into a single slide. Here it is:
