NBER Eggheads Finally Proclaim Recession

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The National Bureau of Economic Research today announced that its Business Cycle Dating Committee had officially determined a peak in economic activity at December 2007, which signals the start of the recession.    I am a member of the committee.    Though I speak only for myself, not the committee, I offer my views on two questions of possible interest: 

(1)   Who needs the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) anyway?

(2)   Why did we pick December 2007 as the starting month of the recession? read more

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The Best, the Brightest, and the Least Arrogant

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Over the last 24 hours, President-Elect Obama has announced five top members of his new economic team.   What do they have in common?   

 

Retreads from the Clinton Administration?    Rubin protégés?   No, not all.                    

  • Scholars from leading universities?     No, not all.                    

  • Friends of mine?    Well, yes, though that is not my point.    As it happens, they have been friends, for 12-to-30 years.    (god forgive me.   There are few greater turnoffs than a columnist who thinks it’s “all about me.”    On the other hand, this isn’t a newspaper column.   It’s just my personal blog.  So what the hell.)    Here is the list:
  •    read more

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    Tim Geithner As Treasury Secretary: A Man Who Doesn’t Lose his Cool

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    News services reported today that Tim Geithner, currently President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, was President-elect Obama’s choice to be Secretary of the Treasury. The fiancial markets reacted very positively to the news. This presumably captures both relief that some policy uncertainty has been resolved at this critical juncture and approval that Geithner is the man chosen.   I share the pleasure at this appointment.

    Tim Geithner is refreshingly straightforward and personable, and doesn’t “stand on ceremony.”  At the same time, he is cool and unflappable. By coincidence, the Economic Advisory Panel to the NY Fed President, of which I am a member, met today. Unusually, Geithner excused himself at two points in the four-hour meeting to take short phone calls. Given the timing, it seems very likely that one of the phone calls was Senator Obama offering him the Treasury position. These Panel meetings are off the record, but I think I am not betraying any confidences to report that Geithner betrayed no sign to us of what had just happened. No change in demeanor, no change in the substantive flow of the discussion. This is a guy who does not lose his cool.  Just what the country needs. read more

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